Third quarter 2024 results
Driving focus and efficiencies; delivering resilient operations
Highlights
- Resilient operations: 3Q24 upstream production 2.4mmboe/d; 3Q24 refining availability 95.6%.
- Focus and efficiencies: in action to deliver at least $2 billion of sustainable cash cost* savings.
- Growth and access: Signed two memorandums of understanding to join SOCAR in two exploration and development blocks offshore Azerbaijan and to negotiate a material integrated redevelopment programme for the Kirkuk region; Completed the bp Bunge Bioenergia and Lightsource bp transactions in 4Q.
- Shareholder distributions: Dividend per ordinary share of 8 cents; $1.75 billion share buyback announced for 3Q24, as part of our commitment to announce $3.5 billion for the second half of 2024.
| $ million |
Third quarter 2024 | Second quarter 2024 | Third quarter 2023 | Nine months 2024 | Nine months 2023 |
| Profit (loss) for the period attributable to bp shareholders | 206 | (129) | 4,858 | 2,340 | 14,868 |
| Inventory holding (gains) losses*, net of tax | 906 | 113 | (1,212) | 362 | (211) |
| Replacement cost (RC) profit (loss)* | 1,112 | (16) | 3,646 | 2,702 | 14,657 |
| Net (favourable) adverse impact of adjusting items*, net of tax | 1,155 | 2,772 | (353) | 5,044 | (3,812) |
| Underlying RC profit* | 2,267 | 2,756 | 3,293 | 7,746 | 10,845 |
| Operating cash flow* | 6,761 | 8,100 | 8,747 | 19,870 | 22,662 |
| Capital expenditure* | (4,542) | (3,691) | (3,603) | (12,511) | (11,542) |
| Divestment and other proceeds(a) | 290 | 760 | 655 | 1,463 | 1,543 |
| Net issue (repurchase) of shares(b) | (2,001) | (1,751) | (2,047) | (5,502) | (6,568) |
| Net debt*(c) | 24,268 | 22,614 | 22,324 | 24,268 | 22,324 |
| Adjusted EBITDA* | 9,654 | 9,639 | 10,306 | 29,599 | 33,142 |
| Announced dividend per ordinary share (cents per share) | 8.000 | 8.000 | 7.270 | 23.270 | 21.150 |
| Underlying RC profit per ordinary share* (cents) | 13.89 | 16.61 | 19.14 | 46.79 | 61.83 |
| Underlying RC profit per ADS* (dollars) | 0.83 | 1.00 | 1.15 | 2.81 | 3.71 |
(a) Divestment proceeds are disposal proceeds as per the condensed group cash flow statement. See page 3 for more information on other proceeds.
(b) Third quarter and nine months 2024 include $0.3 billion to offset the expected dilution from the vesting of awards under employee share schemes (third quarter 2023 $0.2 billion, nine months 2023 $0.7 billion).
(c) See Note 9 for more information.
RC profit (loss), underlying RC profit, net debt, adjusted EBITDA, underlying RC profit per ordinary share and underlying RC profit per ADS are non-IFRS measures. Inventory holding (gains) losses and adjusting items are non-IFRS adjustments.
* For items marked with an asterisk throughout this document, definitions are provided in the Glossary on page 31.
Highlights
3Q24 underlying replacement cost (RC) profit $2.3 billion
- Underlying RC profit for the quarter was $2.3 billion, compared with $2.8 billion for the previous quarter. Compared with the second quarter 2024, the underlying result reflects weaker realized refining margins, a weak oil trading result and lower liquids realizations, partly offset by higher gas realizations. The gas marketing and trading result was average. The underlying effective tax rate (ETR)* in the quarter was 42%.
- Reported profit for the quarter was $0.2 billion, compared with a loss of $0.1 billion for the second quarter 2024. The reported result for the third quarter is adjusted for inventory holding losses* of $1.2 billion (pre-tax) and a net adverse impact of adjusting items* of $1.6 billion (pre-tax) to derive the underlying RC profit. Adjusting items pre-tax include impairments of $1.7 billion (see Note 3) and favourable fair value accounting effects* of $0.4 billion. See page 27 for more information on adjusting items.
Segment results
- Gas & low carbon energy: The RC profit before interest and tax for the third quarter 2024 was $1.0 billion, compared with a loss of $0.3 billion for the previous quarter. After adjusting RC profit before interest and tax for a net adverse impact of adjusting items of $0.7 billion, the underlying RC profit before interest and tax* for the third quarter was $1.8 billion, compared with $1.4 billion in the second quarter 2024. The third quarter underlying result before interest and tax is largely driven by higher gas realizations. The gas marketing and trading result was average.
- Oil production & operations: The RC profit before interest and tax for the third quarter 2024 was $1.9 billion, compared with $3.3 billion for the previous quarter. After adjusting RC profit before interest and tax for a net adverse impact of adjusting items of $0.9 billion, the underlying RC profit before interest and tax for the third quarter was $2.8 billion, compared with $3.1 billion in the second quarter 2024. The third quarter underlying result before interest and tax reflects lower liquids realizations and higher exploration write-offs.
- Customers & products: The RC profit before interest and tax for the third quarter 2024 was $23 million, compared with a loss of $0.1 billion for the previous quarter. After adjusting RC profit before interest and tax for a net adverse impact of adjusting items of $0.4 billion, the underlying RC profit before interest and tax (underlying result) for the third quarter was $0.4 billion, compared with $1.1 billion in the second quarter 2024. The customers third quarter underlying result was higher by $0.1 billion, reflecting broadly flat fuels margins, seasonally higher volumes partly offset by costs. The products third quarter underlying result was lower by $0.9 billion, mainly reflecting weaker realized refining margins and a weak oil trading contribution which was lower than the second quarter.
Operating cash flow* $6.8 billion and net debt* $24.3 billion
- Operating cash flow in the quarter was $6.8 billion. This includes a working capital* release of $1.4 billion (after adjusting for inventory holding losses, fair value accounting effects and other adjusting items), reflecting the unwind of a working capital build in the first quarter, impact of the price environment and timing of various payments (see page 28). Net debt increased to $24.3 billion compared to the second quarter, primarily driven by lower operating cash flow, higher capital expenditures and lower divestment and other proceeds.
Growing distributions within an unchanged financial frame
- A resilient dividend is bp’s first priority within its disciplined financial frame, underpinned by a cash balance point* of around $40 per barrel Brent, $11 per barrel RMM and $3 per mmBtu Henry Hub (all 2021 real). For the third quarter, bp has announced a dividend per ordinary share of 8 cents.
- bp is committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet and strong investment grade credit rating. Through the cycle, we are targeting to further improve our credit metrics within an 'A' grade credit range.
- bp continues to invest with discipline and a returns focused approach in our transition growth* engines and in our oil, gas and refining businesses.
- The $1.75 billion share buyback programme announced with the second quarter results was completed on 25 October 2024. Related to the third quarter results, bp intends to execute a $1.75 billion share buyback prior to reporting the fourth quarter results. Furthermore, bp is committed to announcing $1.75 billion for the fourth quarter of 2024. In addition, our previous guidance for at least $14 billion of share buybacks through 2025 at market conditions around bp's fourth quarter 2023 results(a) and subject to maintaining a strong investment grade credit rating, is currently unchanged, although as part of the update to our medium term plans in February 2025, we intend to review elements of our financial guidance, including our expectations for 2025 share buybacks.
- In setting the dividend per ordinary share and buyback each quarter, the board will continue to take into account factors including the cumulative level of and outlook for surplus cash flow, the cash balance point and maintaining a strong investment grade credit rating.
(a) 6 February 2024
Cautionary statement
In order to utilize the ‘safe harbor’ provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (the ‘PSLRA’) and the general doctrine of cautionary statements, bp is providing the following cautionary statement:
The discussion in this results announcement contains certain forecasts, projections and forward-looking statements - that is, statements related to future, not past events and circumstances - with respect to the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of bp and certain of the plans and objectives of bp with respect to these items. These statements may generally, but not always, be identified by the use of words such as ‘will’, ‘expects’, ‘is expected to’, ‘aims’, ‘should’, ‘may’, ‘objective’, ‘is likely to’, ‘intends’, ‘believes’, ‘anticipates’, ‘plans’, ‘we see’ or similar expressions.
In particular, the following, among other statements, are all forward looking in nature: plans, expectations and assumptions regarding oil and gas demand, supply, prices or volatility; expectations regarding reserves; expectations regarding production and volumes; expectations regarding bp’s customers & products business; expectations regarding margins; expectations regarding underlying effective tax rate; expectations regarding turnaround and maintenance activity; expectations regarding financial performance, results of operations, finance debt acquired in the fourth quarter, and cash flows; expectations regarding cash cost savings delivery; expectations regarding future project start-ups; expectations regarding the timing of bp’s update on its medium-term plans; expectations regarding shareholders returns; expectations regarding bp’s convenience businesses; bp’s financial guidance, including previous guidance for at least $14 billion of share buybacks through 2025; bp’s plans and expectations regarding the amount and timing of share buybacks and dividends; plans and expectations regarding bp’s credit rating, including in respect of maintaining a strong investment grade credit rating and targeting further improvements in credit metrics; plans and expectations regarding the allocation of surplus cash flow to share buybacks; plans and expectations regarding the sale of bp’s Türkiye ground fuels business; plans and expectations regarding development of bp’s electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure and RNG landfill plants; plans and expectations related to bp’s transition growth engines, including expected capital expenditures; plans and expectations regarding the amount or timing of payments related to divestment and other proceeds, and the timing, quantum and nature of certain acquisitions and divestments; expectations regarding the timing and amount of future payments relating to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill; expectations regarding bp’s development of hydrogen and sale of its US onshore wind energy business; plans and expectations regarding bp’s guidance for 2024 and the fourth quarter of 2024, including expected growth, margins, businesses & corporate underlying annual charge, timing and amount of divestment and other proceeds, depreciation, depletion and amortization; plans and expectations regarding capital expenditure; and plans and expectations regarding bp-operated projects, ventures, investments, joint ventures, partnerships and agreements with commercial entities and other third party partners, including but not limited to ADNOC, Audi, EOG Resources Trinidad Limited, Iberdrola, Perenco T&T, the Republic of Iraq, SOCAR, Shell Pipeline Company LP and Enbridge Offshore Facilities LC.
By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will or may occur in the future and are outside the control of bp.
Actual results or outcomes may differ materially from those expressed in such statements, depending on a variety of factors, including: the extent and duration of the impact of current market conditions including the volatility of oil prices, the effects of bp’s plan to exit its shareholding in Rosneft and other investments in Russia, overall global economic and business conditions impacting bp’s business and demand for bp’s products as well as the specific factors identified in the discussions accompanying such forwardlooking statements; changes in consumer preferences and societal expectations; the pace of development and adoption of alternative energy solutions; developments in policy, law, regulation, technology and markets, including societal and investor sentiment related to the issue of climate change; the receipt of relevant third party and/or regulatory approvals including ongoing approvals required for the continued developments of approved projects; the timing and level of maintenance and/or turnaround activity; the timing and volume of refinery additions and outages; the timing of bringing new fields onstream; the timing, quantum and nature of certain acquisitions and divestments; future levels of industry product supply, demand and pricing, including supply growth in North America and continued base oil and additive supply shortages; OPEC+ quota restrictions; PSA and TSC effects; operational and safety problems; potential lapses in product quality; economic and financial market conditions generally or in various countries and regions; political stability and economic growth in relevant areas of the world; changes in laws and governmental regulations and policies, including related to climate change; changes in social attitudes and customer preferences; regulatory or legal actions including the types of enforcement action pursued and the nature of remedies sought or imposed; the actions of prosecutors, regulatory authorities and courts; delays in the processes for resolving claims; amounts ultimately payable and timing of payments relating to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill; exchange rate fluctuations; development and use of new technology; recruitment and retention of a skilled workforce; the success or otherwise of partnering; the actions of competitors, trading partners, contractors, subcontractors, creditors, rating agencies and others; bp’s access to future credit resources; business disruption and crisis management; the impact on bp’s reputation of ethical misconduct and non-compliance with regulatory obligations; trading losses; major uninsured losses; the possibility that international sanctions or other steps taken by governmental authorities or any other relevant persons may impact bp’s ability to sell its interests in Rosneft, or the price for which bp could sell such interests; the actions of contractors; natural disasters and adverse weather conditions; changes in public expectations and other changes to business conditions; wars and acts of terrorism; cyber-attacks or sabotage; and those factors discussed under “Principal risks and uncertainties” in bp’s Report on Form 6-K regarding results for the six-month period ended 30 June 2024 as filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) as well as those factors discussed under “Risk factors” in bp’s Annual Report and Form 20-F for fiscal year 2023 as filed with the SEC.