The outlook for energy in two scenarios

bp’s Energy Outlook 2025 uses two scenarios – Current Trajectory and Below 2° – to explore the speed and shape of the energy transition out to 2050 and to help shape a resilient strategy for bp.

• Current Trajectory is designed to capture the broad pathway along which the global energy system is currently travelling.
• Below 2° explores how different elements of the energy system might change in order to achieve a substantial reduction in carbon emissions.

The global energy system

The two scenarios are informed by recent trends and developments in the global energy system. In emerging trends, we discuss these recent developments across areas including energy demand, energy security, energy efficiency and carbon emissions.

The scenarios can be used to help inform some key insights about how the energy system may evolve over the next 25 years. We discuss trends common across both scenarios, including strong growth in energy demand in emerging economies, rapid growth of wind and solar power, and the declining importance of fossil fuels. We also discuss trends that are more dependent on the speed of the transition, such as the pace of growth of modern bioenergy and low carbon hydrogen.

We use the scenarios to explore the speed and shape of the energy transition out to 2050, then in the following pages discuss the outlook for the various energy types.

Sensitivities

We also explore the impact of other issues and uncertainties affecting the outlook of the energy system, by varying key aspects of Current Trajectory. Those issues include the risks of increased geopolitical fragmentation and of sustained weakness in energy efficiency gains.