The prospects for natural gas are shaped by two significant but opposing trends: increasing demand in emerging economies as they grow and industrialize, offset by a shift away from natural gas to greater electrification and lower carbon fuels as the world decarbonizes. The net impact of these two opposing forces depends on the speed of the energy transition.
LNG demand increases rapidly in the near term, but the outlook post-2030 becomes increasingly dependent on the pace of the transition, especially in Europe and Asia, which rely on LNG imports to meet their incremental natural gas demand.
Global natural gas production is driven initially by the need to support increasing demand for LNG exports, with the US and the Middle East gaining share relative to Russia. Further out, the pattern of global supply increasingly depends on the speed of the energy transition.