Modelling guidance

Trading conditions update

The trading conditions update is produced in order to provide equal disclosure to all investors and potential investors of current trading conditions.

Content includes the following:

• Current and historic market prices
• Current and historic marker margins
• Rules of thumb for Brent, Henry Hub and RMM

*combined indicator for oil production & operations and gas & low carbon energy

Find out more about our trading conditions update

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Upcoming quarters guidance

Below is bp's 4Q24 guidance as at 3Q24 results publication on 29 October 2024

• Looking ahead, bp expects fourth quarter 2024 reported upstream production to be lower compared with the third-quarter 2024.
• In its customers business, bp expects seasonally lower volumes compared to the third quarter and fuels margins to remain sensitive to movements in the cost of supply.
• In products, bp expects realized refining margins to remain low in the fourth quarter, albeit to continue to remain sensitive to relative movements in product cracks.
  

Full year guidance

Below is bp's 2024 guidance as at 3Q24 results publication on 29 October 2024

• bp continues to expect both reported and underlying upstream production to be slightly higher compared with 2023. Within this, bp continues to expect underlying production from oil production & operations to be higher and production from gas & low carbon energy to be lower.
• In its customers business, bp continues to expect growth from convenience, including a full year contribution from TravelCenters of America; a stronger contribution from Castrol underpinned by volume growth in focus markets; and continued margin growth from bp pulse driven by higher energy sold. In addition, bp continues to expect fuels margins to remain sensitive to the cost of supply.
• In products, bp continues to expect a lower level of industry refining margins relative to 2023, with realized margins impacted by narrower North American heavy crude oil differentials. bp continues to expect refinery turnaround activity to have a lower financial impact compared to 2023, reflecting the lower margin environment. Phasing of turnaround activity in 2024 is heavily weighted towards the second half, with the highest impact in the fourth quarter. 
• bp now expects other businesses & corporate underlying annual charge to be $0.3-0.4 billion for 2024.
• bp continues to expect the depreciation, depletion and amortization to be slightly higher than 2023.
• bp continues to expect the underlying ETR for 2024 to be around 40% but it is sensitive to a range of factors, including the volatility of the price environment and its impact on the geographical mix of the group’s profits and losses.
• bp continues to expect capital expenditure for 2024 to be around $16 billion.
• bp now expects divestment and other proceeds to be greater than $3 billion in 2024. Having realized $19.2 billion of divestment and other proceeds since the second quarter of 2020, bp continues to expect to reach $25 billion of divestment and other proceeds between the second half of 2020 and 2025. 
• During the fourth quarter, bp completed the transactions to acquire a further 50% of the issued ordinary shares of bp Bunge Bioenergia and 50.03% of the issued ordinary shares of Lightsource bp (see Note 10) and now owns 100% of the ordinary shares of both companies. Full earnings from both companies will be included in bp’s results from the date the transactions complete and finance debt acquired is expected to be approximately $3.7 billion.
• bp continues to expect Gulf of Mexico settlement payments for the year to be around $1.2 billion pre-tax including $1.1 billion pre-tax paid during the second quarter.
  

bp expects to update on our medium-term plans at the same time as our full year results in February 2025.

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Financial framework