Modelling guidance

Trading conditions update

The trading conditions update is produced in order to provide equal disclosure to all investors and potential investors of current trading conditions.

Content includes the following:

• Current and historic market prices
• Current and historic marker margins
• Rules of thumb for Brent, Henry Hub and RMM

*combined indicator for oil production & operations and gas & low carbon energy

Find out more about our trading conditions update

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Upcoming quarters guidance

Below is bp's 1Q 2025 guidance as at 4Q24 results publication on 11 February 2025

• Looking ahead, bp expects first quarter 2025 reported upstream production to be lower compared with the fourth-quarter 2024 primarily due to the already announced divestments in Egypt and Trinidad, which completed towards the end of the fourth quarter and base decline in both regions, totaling around 90 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day.
• In its customers business, bp expects seasonally lower volumes compared to the fourth quarter. In addition, bp expects fuels margins to remain sensitive to movements in cost of supply and earnings delivery to remain sensitive to the relative strength of the US dollar.
• In products, bp expects realized refining margins to remain low in the first quarter. bp also expects a lower level of refinery turnaround activity compared to the fourth quarter 2024.
  

Full year guidance

Below is bp's 2025 guidance as at 4Q24 results publication on 11 February 2025

• bp expects reported upstream production to be lower and underlying upstream production to be slightly lower compared with 2024. Within this, bp expects underlying production from oil production & operations to be broadly flat and production from gas & low carbon energy to be lower.
• In its customers business, bp expects growth in its customers businesses including a full year contribution from bp bioenergy and a higher contribution from TravelCenters of America in part supported by a partial recovery from the US freight recession. Earnings growth is expected to be supported by structural cost reduction. bp continues to expect fuels margins to remain sensitive to the cost of supply and earnings delivery to remain sensitive to the relative strength of the US dollar.
• In products, bp expects broadly flat refining margins relative to 2024 and stronger underlying performance underpinned by the absence of the plant-wide power outage at Whiting refinery, and improvement plans across the portfolio. bp expects similar levels of refinery turnaround activity, with phasing of turnaround activity in 2025 heavily weighted towards the first half, with the highest impact in the second quarter. 
• bp expects other businesses & corporate underlying annual charge to be around $1.0 billion for 2025. The charge may vary from quarter to quarter.
• bp expects the depreciation, depletion and amortization to be broadly flat compared with 2024.
• bp expects the underlying ETR for 2025 to be around 40% but it is sensitive to a range of factors, including the volatility of the price environment and its impact on the geographical mix of the group’s profits and losses.
• bp expects divestment and other proceeds to be around $3 billion in 2025 weighted towards the second half. Having realized $22.0 billion of divestment and other proceeds since the second quarter of 2020, bp continues to expect to reach $25 billion of divestment and other proceeds between the second half of 2020 and 2025. 
• bp expects Gulf of America settlement payments for the year to be around $1.2 billion pre-tax including $1.1 billion pre-tax to be paid during the second quarter.

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